Labour Fails to Secure Overall Majority in Latest Vote Share Projection

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local election results
The results would mean a hung Parliament.

Labour Have a Long Way to Go…

Local elections 2023

Starmer’s jubilation over the local elections is more of the tale of the one that got away, more accurately, it’s the exaggeration it was this big…

Sir Keir Starmer’s posturing over the local election results is reminiscent of a fisherman boasting about the size of the one that got away. The truth is that Labour’s gains were more a result of Tory collapse than Starmer’s appeal, leaving the party still adrift in the face of thirteen years of Tory turmoil. If Labour cannot reverse this trend, the prospect of a hung parliament looms large, and with it, the sense of despair for the future of British politics.

The Labour Party would fall short of an overall majority in parliament if a general election were held today, according to a vote share projection based on the recent local elections in England. Analysis of the change in vote share across 1,500 wards shows that Labour is currently the most popular party, with a share of 36%. The Conservative Party follows with a share of 29%, while the Liberal Democrats and other parties have shares of 18% and 17%, respectively.

Tories set to lose significant number of seats in projection based on local election results.

The projection indicates that Labour would gain 95 seats, resulting in an improved total of 298 seats. This would be the highest number of seats for Labour since their victory in the 2005 general election. However, despite the gains, Labour would still be 28 seats short of an overall majority. In contrast, the Tories would face a significant loss of 127 seats, dropping from 365 to 238.

The Liberal Democrats had what their leader Sir Ed Davey said was their “best result in decades”, taking control of 12 councils, mostly in Tory heartlands.

The Green Party gained more than 200 seats – their best-ever result in local elections – and gained its first majority on an English council, in Mid-Suffolk, although they were overtaken as the biggest party by Labour in Brighton and Hove.

The projection, conducted by Sky News, suggests that Labour still has a long way to go to secure a parliamentary majority. The results would mean a hung Parliament.

The party has been struggling to unite the different factions within its ranks and present a clear message to voters. While the party’s leader, Keir Starmer, has tried to position Labour as a credible alternative to the current Conservative government, he has faced criticism for his lack of charisma and leadership skills.

The elections of 230 councils in England were the first big test of Rishe Sunak’s electoral popularity since he won a Tory leadership contest and became prime minister last October.

The projection also highlights the ongoing challenge faced by the Tory Party, which has been struggling to maintain its popularity following a series of scandals and controversies. There have even been suggestions for yet another leadership challenge.

This came after Rishi Sunak conceded the English council results were “disappointing”, but faced a scathing verdict from some of his MPs and the first rumblings of a threat to his leadership from allies of Boris Johnson.

As the big picture became clearer, there was disagreement among Tories over who was to blame for the loss of so many councillors.

The elections came amid a dire economic backdrop in the UK, with high inflation contributing to the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades.

A figure loyal to Mr Johnson and Ms Truss told the BBC that Mr Sunak had “no option but to own these results”.

In a seething statement, the person said: “He has been chancellor or prime minister for virtually all of the last three years and it was he and his supporters who forced Boris and then Liz out of office in order to install him in Downing Street.

“The old saying goes that ‘it is the economy, stupid’ that defines the choice voters have at the ballot box.”

Elsewhere the Left-wing independents did exceedingly well.

Liverpool Community Independents (LCI) candidates Sam Gorst and Lucy Williams took both seats in the newly-reconfigured ward, relegating Labour into third and fourth. Alan Gibbons also won a resounding victory in Orrell Park in the north of the city, polling almost four times as many votes as his Labour rival.

Sam Gorst and Lucy Williams
Sam Gorst and Lucy Williams Liverpool Community Independents (LCI)

Vote share projection highlights ongoing political uncertainty in UK.

It is worth noting that vote share projections are based on assumptions of uniform national swing and should be interpreted with caution. Local elections often reflect specific regional dynamics and may not fully predict outcomes in a general election. As the political landscape continues to evolve, how these projections will translate into actual seats in the House of Commons remains to be seen.

“As a lifelong advocate for social justice and equality, I find it deeply troubling that after thirteen years of Tory Austerity, corruption, and economic chaos, the Labour Party under Sir Keir Starmer has failed to make significant progress. Labour gains come from the Tory collapse and not the popularity of Starmer. If this trend continues, it will only lead to a sense of hopelessness for the future of British politics.”

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