Boris Johnson to announce new Tier 4 Lockdown rules

Boris Johnson will hold a news conference later as the government considers a new month-long lockdown across England.

The hope is that stricter measures could then be eased by Christmas.

It comes as documents seen by the BBC suggest the UK is on course for a much higher death toll than during the first wave unless further restrictions are introduced.

Deaths could reach more than 4,000 a day, one of the models suggests.

That figure is based on no policies being brought in to slow the spread of the disease, but most of the models peak at about 2,000 a day.

The hope is that stricter measures could then be eased by Christmas.

These are the measures to be announced by the PM at 5. 

They will last until 2 December. 

This, in effect, is a new “Tier 4” that will be imposed for a month initially to the whole of England.  

All pubs and restaurants to close, though takeaways and deliveries will be permitted.

All non-essential retail to close, though supermarkets won’t have to follow the Welsh example of fencing off non-essential goods. 

There will be no mixing of people inside homes, except for childcare and other forms of support. 

Manufacturing and construction will be encouraged to keep going.

Outbound international travel will be banned, except for work. 

Travel within the UK will be discouraged, except for work.

Overnight stays away from home will be allowed only for work purposes.

Courts, schools, and universities will remain open.

Outdoor exercise and recreation will be encouraged. 

Private prayer will continue in places of worship, but not services. 

It all starts at one second past midnight on Thursday. 

The regulations will be published on Tuesday, and MPs will vote on them on Wednesday.

One source told me to consider the regulations as a Tier 4 for the whole of England.  

After 2 December, the exit strategy is that different parts of the country will then have their local economies and behaviour governed by the existing Tiers, namely Tiers 1 to 3, depending on how serious the virus is in these respective places.

Awkward questions on schools

In recent weeks, there has been clear evidence of an increase in the number of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19). Recently updated age categories to separate children and young people by school age:

Many people are questioning the proposed new measures but more so asking awkward questions about schools and university’s remaining open when the 10- 19 20- 29 are the most infected groups.

In recent weeks, there has been clear evidence of an increase in the number of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19). We have recently updated our age categories to separate children and young people by school age:

• “age two years to school Year 6” includes those children in primary school and below
• “school Year 7 to school Year 11” includes those children in secondary school
• “school Year 12 to age 24 years” includes those young adults who may be in further or higher education

This means that 11- to 12-year-olds have been split between the youngest age categories depending on whether they are in school Year 6 or 7 (birthday before or after 1 September).

Similarly, 16- to 17-year-olds are split depending on whether they are in school Year 11 or 12 (birthday before or after 1 September).

The highest rates appear among older teenagers and young adults (school Year 12 to age 24), where rates have grown very rapidly in the most recent weeks. The second highest rates are seen in the secondary school age group (school Year 7 to school Year 11). Increases are also apparent across the other age groups but to a much lesser extent. This is based on statistical modelling of nose and throat swab test results.

Earlier this month Laura Pidcock tweeted in response to Sir Keir Starmer’s disjointed so-called ‘circuit break’ saying: “A ‘circuit break’ must include school closures (or back to lockdown provision). Anything less than that that will be inadequate to slow the spread of the virus. None of us want to be here. We are here because we have been relentlessly failed by government.”

This begs the question, why are both Boris Johnson and Sir Keir Starmer insisting Schools remain open.