The results of fourteen years of Tory neoliberalism gave us the Labour Party – and with it, a new era of neoliberalism, now it opens the gates to Reform…
The absence of class politics and the surrender to globalisation are breeding nationalism. The so-called extreme centre has become a factory for populism, and out of that vacuum steps the Reform Party. The land that once gave birth to Labour’s song of solidarity is now humming a different tune. The sweet green valleys of Wales are changing key.
A new poll ahead of the Caerphilly by-election has sent shockwaves through the Labour establishment. Just thirty minutes from Merthyr Tydfil, the seat once held by Keir Hardie, the founder of the Labour Party, the unthinkable is now within sight: for the first time in a century, Labour could be pushed into third place in one of its oldest and proudest heartlands, the very soil where the movement was born.
What was once the beating heart of Labour Britain now shows signs of cardiac arrest. The party that rose from the coal dust and union halls of Wales is watching its pulse fade beneath the polished shoes of its own career politicians.
The Survation poll, conducted for Camlas Public Affairs, shows Reform UK leading with 42%, Plaid Cymru close behind on 38%, and Labour trailing at a distant 12%. The sample size of 501 voters may be small, but the message is seismic.
Caerphilly has never fallen to anyone but Labour, not in Westminster, not in the Senedd. Now, after decades of loyalty, the ground beneath Labour’s feet is slipping away.
Across Wales, the trend is the same. National polling shows Labour’s vote share collapsing from 40% in 2021 to 14% today. Reform is eating the Conservatives alive, Plaid Cymru is capturing the imagination of the young, and Labour’s coalition of old loyalties is splintering beyond repair.
The data paints a bleak picture for Starmer’s Labour:
- Reform UK commands almost half of older voters (49% of over-55s).
- Plaid Cymru dominates among the young (50% of 18–34s).
- Labour’s 2021 base has shattered – only a third remain loyal, with 31% defecting to Plaid and 26% to Reform.
- Conservatives have all but vanished, with 70% of their 2021 voters shifting to Reform.
Rhodri ab Owen of Camlas Public Affairs summed it up bluntly: “The battle lines of Welsh politics have been redrawn.”
A generational divide now defines Welsh politics: Reform speaking to the disillusioned older voter who feels abandoned by all sides; Plaid giving voice to younger generations who want something rooted in place and identity. Labour, once the party of both, has become the party of neither.
Damian Lyons Lowe of Survation went further, warning that Welsh politics is “on the cusp of an unprecedented transformation.” In 2021, Labour and the Conservatives together took 63% of Caerphilly’s vote. That combined share could now fall to just 16%.
If this pattern repeats nationwide, it will not only end Labour’s century-long dominance of the Welsh valleys, it will end two decades of uninterrupted Labour rule in Cardiff Bay.
Plaid Cymru, sensing blood, is framing the by-election as a “two-horse race.” Their candidate, Lindsay Whittle, has deep local roots and a reputation for hard graft. Plaid’s message is clear: vote Plaid to stop Reform.
But behind the campaign noise, a deeper truth is emerging. Wales is not simply turning nationalist; it is rejecting managerial politics, austerity dressed as prudence, and a Labour Party that long ago forgot who it was for.
The red valleys are no longer Labour’s by inheritance. The party that once sang for miners and dreamers now speaks the language of markets and metrics. The people are tuning out.
If the valleys of Wales no longer sing for Labour, it is because Labour stopped singing for them…
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